This pick was released to clients on July 25, 2012 at 5:27PM ET.
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Los Angeles at Kansas City

December 24, 2005
img1:00 PM Eastern
Premium Pick

San Diego is off the most impressive win of the season in the NFL. As big dogs they went into Indy and knocked off the undefeated Colts. How many people really thought they would win that game? Really? I hand it to the Chargers. It may be too little too late though as they have an uphill battle on their hands for playoff contention. Kansas City has won 17 straight at Arrowhead in December including a big win against Denver three weeks ago. And yet again they find themselves as underdogs here. But, they followed that Denver win with two straight losses which puts them in a very difficult position to make the playoffs. Their defense is the reason they are in trouble, again. The last three weeks they have allowed 27, 31 and 27. They've allowed 27+ in nearly half of their games this year. Of course, they are scoring again this year at 25 per game. But, this total is too high. First off, two of the last three games were against very good offenses (Denver, Giants). The other was on the road against a team that had an air-it-out gameplan against the Chiefs to try to stay with them (Dallas). People quickly forget that the Chiefs held their prior three opponents to 14, 17 and 16 points respectively. On the road, they held San Diego to 28 in the first matchup and I expect them to keep it in the twenties in this one. San Diego's off a draining and emotional win. It wouldn't surprrise me if the Bolts are somewhat flat this week after that Colts game, especially on offense. And, the SD defense has been spectacular the last few weeks. They held their last five opponents (including the high-powered Colts) to an average of 15.4 points per game. Kansas City's offense is not what it has been in the past and they may struggle to reach 20 this game. Larry Johnson has been outstanding but he'll be facing the top-rated run defense in the league on Saturday. San Diego is 7-2 UNDER their last nine while KC has gone UNDER five out of their last eight. Two stars on this game to go UNDER the total.

2 units on Game Total UNDER 50 -110 (risk 2 to return 3.82)
Result:
WIN
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