This pick was released to clients on July 30, 2012 at 10:36PM ET.
img NFL

Los Angeles at Buffalo

December 3, 2006
img1:00 PM Eastern
Premium Pick

San Diego has that Superbowl look about them right now. They are taking care of business week after week and they top most people's list of top teams. Buffalo suddenly has won 3 of 4 and and the loss was by 1 point to Indianapolis. They are off a very big win last week at home vs Jacksonville. San Diego has a big game vs. Denver at home next week, while for the Bills this is another opportunity to add to the feel-good of the past four weeks. The Bills are playing their best football in over two years. There is also a trend in this game that involves personnel. Buffalo has gotten healthier and healthier over the past four weeks while San Diego has lots of injuries to deal with over the past two weeks. This may be in part why they seemed to coast vs. Oakland, and may be the case again here vs. Buffalo. Rivers, who had just 3 picks all season going into week 11, has had 3 picked in his last two games and had his worst game of the season going 14-31 for 133 vs. Oakland. Could he be hitting the first-time-starter wall? JP Losman on the otherhand has been good completing 71.2% over his last two. Having McGahee back and carrying more of the load should help as well. San Diego started the season allowing just 11 ppg through five weeks, but has been lapsing defensively of late yielding 26.8 ppg over its last six. The only team they held below 24 points was lowly Oakland. Buffalo can credit their trunaround on what decides many NFL games - turnovers. After giving away 15 in the 1st seven games, they have had just two in the last four games. Buffalo's a tough place to play in December, especially for warm-weather teams. The Bills are 18-6 ATS here in the last 24 during this month. A hot QB, a returning RB, a team not putting the ball on the ground and a recently pourous opposing defense make for a live home dog.

3 units on Buffalo +6 (-110) (risk 3 to return 5.73)
Result:
WIN
TAKE THE GUESSWORK OUT OF SPORTS BETTING

Get my free NFL picks and predictions.

Join 409,400 Subscribers!