Las Vegas at New York

The New York Giants have done just about everything right. They come in here with a 4-0 record and are playing very well on both sides of the ball. The same certainly can't be said for the Oakland Raiders who have not found the end-zone in their last two weeks. There is no doubt that the Giants are a much better team. But laying more than two touchdowns in an NFL game? Really? It only takes one interception or fumble or punt return for Oakland to make this a difficult number for New York to cover. The Giants are in the perfect letdown spot. After opening with two tough division games and playing three straight on the road, they have what appears to be a show-up-and-win type of game vs. the Raiders. Despite their efforts to avoid letting down, this team is human. On top of it, the Giants have an ailing QB who didn't practice this week, nursing a bad heel. If Eli Manning plays, the Giants will likely operate conservatively and if they get a big enough lead could sit Manning, opening the door for a backdoor cover. Teams like the Raiders that are 1-3 are 64-42 ATS off a loss and the Raiders are also in another huge advantage spot. Since 1980 teams that are dogs of more than 14 points have turned a 60-41-3 ATS mark, good for nearly 60% winners. Although these games look ugly, the oddsmakers know it will be difficult to muster support for the ugly team vs. a good team, and these games always end up with dramatic overlays. Such is the case here. No matter how good a team is, laying more than two touchdowns is not a profitable recipe, especially when your starting quarterback is questionable. The Giants also have a date with unbeaten New Orleans on deck so I look for them to come out a bit flat in this game. Need more reason to believe a letdown is in order? Under Tom Coughlin, the Giants are a terrible 5-17 ATS following back-to-back ATS covers as a favorite. Again, by definition the two wins were by big margins as they covered as a favorite. So, a Giants letdown here is not far fetched. Yes, this game could be a big-time blowout. But in the long term, the value is on the huge dog. As hard as it is to stomach, I'm backing Oakland in this one.