Las Vegas at New England

I know I'm gonna take some grief for this pick. But, that's the point. The public is definitely on the World beating New England Patriots. It's hard to pick against a team that has done so well in recent history. But, my analysis is telling me Oakland keeps this under a touchdown. Any time you can get over a TD in week one, it's worth a look. Big underdogs come through at a very high rate in the NFL in the first week. What's changed here for these two teams? Well, New England has lost Tedi Bruschi, Ted Johnson and Roman Phifer - the heart of their linebacking corp, as well as all-world corner Ty Law. And, oh yeah - both their offensive and defensive coordinators have also jumped ship. They still have Brady and Belichick which is why we'll keep this a one star play. On the Raider side of the ball (yes I say "side" instead of "sides" because they have no defense), the offensive-minded Norv Turner has stockpiled quite an offense. He brought in Randy Moss and LaMont Jordan, both high-impact players to compliment the emerging Jerry Porter. The Raiders formula for success this season will be simple: give up a lot of points but score more. I expect a lot of scoring in a game that should end up closer than 7.5 points. The public has pushed this line a bit over where it should be and we'll, as usual, go the opposite way. No "tuck rule" here - Take the Raiders plus the points for one star and OVER the total for one star.