Las Vegas at Cleveland

Both teams need a win to stay in the hunt for the AFC wild-card. Las Vegas QB Derek Carr (18 TDs, 10 INTs) leads an offense that is #10 in the NFL in total yards and second in passing with 287.8 yards per game. The Raiders got crushed at Kansas City last week, but they have covered five of seven as an underdog, including a 36-33 win at Dallas as a +7 dog, a 26-17 win at Pittsburgh, and a 34-24 win at Denver as a +5 dog. Las Vegas is also 35-20 UNDER the total on the road after allowing 30+ points in the last game. Cleveland has underachieved much of the season with an erratic offense that is #24 in passing and #22 on third down. The Browns were a 13-point favorite over the Lions but won 13-10 and a 5-point home favorite over the Steelers and lost 15-10. Cleveland's defense is the strength of the team, ranking fourth in yards allowed, and seventh against the pass. In their last five home games, the Browns' offense is averaging just 15.6 points, and they are 42-24 UNDER the total at home against losing teams. Cleveland is 8-21 ATS at home against teams that average 260+ yards passing yards per game and Las Vegas won here last year, 16-6, outgaining the Browns 309-223. I like a low-scoring game anyway, but the Browns have also been hit hard by Covid this past week and could end up playing this one without their top two QBs. Take Las Vegas as a Max Play and also take this game to stay UNDER the total.