Kansas City at Tampa Bay

Will either team jump out early and score? Me thinks not. As I?ve discussed, players and coaches are nervous to start this game. They don?t want to take big risks or make big mistakes to put them behind the eight-ball. They generally play conservatively. The data backs this up. In 54 prior Super Bowls, there has been a score in the first four minutes of the game just seven times. That?s 13% of the time, meaning the NO has come in 87% of the time. Fair odds on a NO bet on that are -671. And, as always, I like to look at recent history to see if things have changed. And indeed they have. Through the first 30 Super Bowls, there were five occurrences. But in the last 24, it has happened only twice. And those two times were flukes! In Super Bowl XLI you may recall Chicago?s Devin Hester taking the opening kickoff 92 yards for a touchdown against the Colts. And, in Super Bowl XLVII, you probably recall the ball floating over Peyton Manning?s head on the opening offensive snap for the Broncos vs. the Seahawks. Fair odds on a NO bet when we look at 22 out of 24, comes to -1100. Yet here guys we get amazing odds of -265. Those odds imply that we have only a 73% chance of winning this bet. In fact, history says we have somewhere between a 87% (47 out of 54) and 92% (22 out of 24). So definitely take the NO on this prop bet for a Max Play.