Kansas City at San Francisco

Oddsmakers continue to slap high totals on Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense, but three of their last five games have gone UNDER the total. In his career when facing teams that allow under 19.5 points per game (SF allows just 14.8), Mahomes is 12-8 to the UNDER. And, there are two teams playing here. The Niners are 5-1 to the UNDER this season thanks to a very stout defense. The Chiefs just faced a great Buffalo defense that is No. 1 in points surrendered and No. 2 in yards, and lost 24-20. They now face a defense that is No. 2 in points surrendered and No. 1 in yards allowed in San Francisco. The 49ers are 48-29 UNDER the total against good offensive teams (those that average 375+ total yards per game). Backup QB Jimmy Garoppolo is running a conservative ball-control offense that is #18 in total yards and #22 in passing. The 49ers made a massive move for Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey earlier in the week to bolster their squad. San Francisco’s defense has allowed 7 and 9 points in its two home games versus the Seahawks and defending champion Rams. The Niners were embarrassed last game by the Falcons who put up 28 points. NFL teams like San Francisco off a loss by 10+ points as chalk are 42-14 UNDER the total versus an opponent off a home loss. In addition, NFL teams coming off of an upset loss by 14+ points are 27-3 UNDER the total. Expect the 49es defense to come out with a chip on their shoulder here. The Kyle Shanahan-coached 49ers are 9-1 UNDER following a 14+ points loss and 28-17 UNDER as an underdog. Play Kansas City/San Francisco UNDER the total.