Kansas City at Pittsburgh

The Pittsburgh Steelers have gotten another big year out of QB Ben Roethlisberger who has already thrown for more yards than any season in his career with two games still remaining. That will be put to the test in this one vs. the Kansas City Chiefs who have one of the best pass defenses in the NFL, allowing just 5.7 yards per attempt on the season to a schedule of teams that average 6.5. The Chiefs have a solid running game, so they will be putting the ball on the ground a lot to shorten the game, which keeps their defenders fresh and Big Ben and Antonio Brown off the field. The Steelers may decide to run it more themselves to try and loosen things up as the Chiefs are not nearly as good against a ground attack as they have been vs. quarerbacks. Overall, I think this becomes more of a ground war. If KC can seduce the Steelers into one, it is a game they can surely win by keeping the clock running and producing more on the ground, which is their game. That has been the plan with Alex Smith at QB who is 23-15 to the UNDER in his 38 career road starts, which includes 14-6 to the UNDER as a road dog. Alex Smith has produced an average score of 22.0-19.8 in all his road starts, which have had favorable results straight-up, and low-scoring as a whole. Since Mike Tomlin took over here, the Steelers are 8-1 UNDER after back-to-back-to-back 25+ point games and a perfect 6-0 UNDER in the final two weeks of the regular season. The Steelers have faced four good rushing teams this season (teams that average 4.5+ yards per carry) and they are 0-4 straight-up in those games. In his coaching career, Andy Reid has made a name for himself in pulling upsets when the line is short. In games where his team is a road dog of +230 or less, Reid is 31-25 straight-up. And he's 23-11 in all road games in December in his career. Take Kansas City on the moneyline and play the UNDER in this one.