Kansas City vs. Philadelphia

If all quarters were created equal, then each would have a 25% chance of being the highest scoring, and fair odds on this bet would be +300. But, not all quarters are created equal. In the 2022-23 season, the average points scored for the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th quarters, respectively, were 8.3, 14.3, 9.0, and 12.1. This is pretty close to the long-term averages for modern NFL games. Based on those figures, it would seem that the 2nd quarter would be the best bet for the highest-scoring. And this is exactly how the oddsmakers have set the odds. The odds for betting the 2nd quarter are just +140, providing very little value if any. But there is tremendous value in taking the 4th quarter because the oddsmakers are not paying enough attention. They aren't looking enough at how Super Bowls, specifically, tend to play out. The average points per quarter for the first 56 Super Bowls are 1st: 8.05, 2nd: 12.07, 3rd: 10.05, 4th: 13.05. Yes, the Super Bowl is different! And times - they are a changin'. In the last 33 years, it's gotten even more pronounced at 1st: 8.36, 2nd: 14.06, 3rd: 11.76, 4th: 15.03. The 4th quarter has been the highest-scoring quarter in 13 of the last 27 Super Bowls (48%). At that rate, the odds you should be getting are +108. But instead, we are getting +210 here - great value!