If the first-quarter is the proverbial tortoise, the fourth quarter in the Super Bowl is the hare. More often than not, the final quarter has been a score-fest in the NFL, both in the regular season and, especially, in the Super Bowl. By the time the fourth quarter rolls around, all the jitters are gone and it's no-holds-barred. The NFL league average in the fourth quarter (plus overtime) this season was 12.1 - a full 46% higher than the first quarter!
In Chiefs games this year, 14.1 points were scored on average in the fourth-quarter. In Eagles games, 11.1 points were scored on average. So based on those numbers, we might expect around 13 points in the fourth quarter this year. However, that's not the whole story.
In the Super Bowl, these averages have traditionally increased - a lot. In fact, 22 of the last 35 Super Bowl games (63%) have seen the fourth quarter go OVER the posted total. 15 years ago, the Pats and Giants combined for 21 fourth quarter points in a game in which just 31 total points were scored. Fourteen years ago, after seeing just 27 points scored in the first three quarters combined, 23 points were put up in the final quarter by Arizona and Pittsburgh. 13 seasons ago, 14 points were scored in the 4th quarter. 12 years ago, the Packers and Steelers put up 18 fourth quarter points. 11 years back, the Giants and Patriots only scored 6 in a rare fourth-quarter UNDER. Ten years ago, 14 points were scored by the 49ers and Ravens, going OVER the total. Eight years ago was another rare UNDER (7 points scored) as the game was well out of hand with Seattle leading 36-8 going into the fourth so neither team was really pressing anymore. Eight seasons back, things returned to form with 14 fourth-quarter points and a resulting OVER. Seven years ago we saw another rare UNDER in the fourth quarter with 11 points scored. Six years ago, the Patriots put up 19 points alone to push the fourth-quarter OVER the total. Five years ago, 19 points were scored by the Patriots and Eagles. Four years back, we saw a rare UNDER with 10 points being scored, but note that the 10 fourth-quarter points between the Patriots and Rams represented 63% of the points scored in the entire game (16). Three years back, Kansas City put up 21 points by themselves.
Two years ago was a very rare win for the UNDER as no points were scored in the fourth quarter, and last year was another rare winner for the UNDER with only 7 points scored in the fourth quarter. Despite back-to-back losing years on this bet, I think these two prolific offenses (tied for the #1 ranked offenses averaging 28.7 points per game) will be clicking by the fourth quarter, especially considering that neither of these defenses is elite and KC's is mediocre, ranked 15th in the league. I also think there's a high chance that the game will not be out of reach in the fourth quarter, leading to an urgency to score for both teams. With a 63% historical trend backing us, go with the OVER here in the 4th quarter.
