This season, an average of 8.3 points per game were scored in the first quarter of all NFL games. Chiefs games this season averaged 8.8 first-quarter points while Eagles games averaged 10.2 first-quarter points. Average the two and we get 9.5 points which is right where this total is set. But this game simply does not produce points at the average rate. As the magnitude of this game continues to grow each year, the stakes only get bigger. That results in an inevitable "feeling out" process early on. Drew Brees was quoted as saying about this game that, "It took me until the third series to settle down." Bill Romanowski said of his Super Bowl, "I didn't remember the first four plays." Each team has prepared meticulously but they still need some time to figure out what they can accomplish versus their opponent. Above all, both teams are trying to avoid big mistakes early on. Players and coaches are often nervous and tight. So the play calling, and the play on the field, tend to be conservative in the early going. In the history of the Super Bowl, the first quarter has proved to be a low scoring one as an average of 8.43 points per game has been scored. And, it's been getting lower-scoring as the game gets bigger and bigger.
- 21 of the last 24 Super Bowls have seen 10 or fewer points scored in the first quarter.
One of the years that this bet went OVER the total was in 2011, but that came only thanks to a rare pick-6 touchdown. The last 16 years have seen an average of just 7.19 points scored in the first quarter (3, 3, 10, 14, 9, 10, 8, 0, 10, 0, 12, 0, 10, 10 and 10).
You will notice three zeros in that set, including two of the last six years. The first zero came despite 52 points being scored in the game and the second zero came despite 62 points being scored in the game! The quarterbacks in those 16 games: Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady (seven times), Kurt Warner, Peyton Manning (three times), Drew Brees, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Colin Kaepernick, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson (twice), Patrick Mahomes (twice), Matt Ryan, Nick Foles, Jared Goff, Mathew Stafford, and Joe Burrow. So, don't just automatically fear Patrick Mahomes or Jalen Hurts here.
Even in Super Bowl games that were expected to be very high-scoring, the first quarter has gone UNDER the total much more often than not. 14 years ago the total between the Giants and Patriots was 53.5. In that game, 3 points were scored in the first-quarter. 12 years ago, the total in the Saints-Colts game was set at 56.5. The first-quarter total went UNDER the 10.5 line. 10 years ago the total was 53.5 and the first-quarter went UNDER. Six years the total was set sky-high at 58 and the first-quarter points scored tallied a big goose egg. Four seasons back, the total was a sky-high 56.5 and the first quarter saw no points at all. Three years ago, the total was 54 and only 10 points were scored in the first quarter. Two years ago, the total was set at 56 and 10 points were notched in the first quarter.
This game is expected to be lower-scoring than recent Super Bowls, with a total closer to 50. And, history indicates that most of that scoring will come in the final three quarters after nerves have settled. Mahomes and Hurts may in fact light things up, but if they do it's not likely to come in the first quarter. Take the first-quarter UNDER, buying the half-point from 9.5 with plus juice to 10 with a price.
