Kansas City at New England

The Kansas City Chiefs have been the better team in the second half of the season - far better. They won eleven staight games and now head to Foxborough to take on the struggling New England Patriots. New England started the season at 10-0, but took a dive late to finish 2-4, dropping their last two, when they had something big to play for. The Patriots offense went from elite at 35.6 points per game through their first seven games to managing 30 points or more just once in their final nine games. Their overall scoring average dipped to 24 ppg - nearly a 12 point per game slide. The Chiefs defensive renaissance is well documented, as over their last 13 games they have allowed a stingy 12.5 ppg. No team is playing better or casuing as much heartache for opposing quarterbacks. It is a bit of a concern that the level of competition they have faced as a whole falls below what they will see here. But, they can only play who is across from them, and the Chiefs did what an elite defense should do against bad teams - completely shut them down. They won't shut down the Patriots, but I think they can do a good enough job to have a chance to win this game. The Kansas City offense is also clicking, averaging 25.8 ppg in their last 13. Alex Smith is a smart quarterback who takes care of the football. Yes, Brady and Gronk are a force, but KC went 9-1 straight-up this season vs. good passing teams (teams like NE that average 235+ passing yards per game). Andy Reid owns a winning record as an underdog of less than a touchdown. Many think the Pats dominate at home, but that simply has not been the case in recent years as they are just 4-7 ATS in their last 11 playoff games. They have also suffered three straight-up losses as favorites of 3.5, 9.5, and 8 points, so they are clearly vulnerable here. These two teams are heading in opposite directions. Take the Chiefs to win outright. Also take the OVER. New England is 37-20 to the OVER in their last 57 at home. The Patriots have not played to a playoff total at home this low since 2008. Since that time their average playoff total has been 49 points, and this one is certainly under done. The Chiefs are have scored 29+ points in each of their last five road games. When playing at home vs. elite teams like KC (teams outscoring opponents by 6+ points per game), the Pats are 6-0 to the OVER the past three years. Since Bill Belichick arrived in town, the Patriots are 49-34 OVER to a total in this range (35.5 to 42 points) and 17-7 OVER after a double-digit loss. Take Kansas City on the moneyline and also play the OVER.