Kansas City at Las Vegas

After going over 20-point mark just once last season, I'm not sure anyone could have predicted that the Oakland Raiders would go back-to-back games scoring a total of 92 points. The fact is that the Raiders have topped the 30 mark in three of their last four, so this offense has improved significantly. But, they have been fortunate to have had good matchups the last two weeks vs. teams that don't run well, as the Raiders are better equipped to stop the passing game. Unfortunately for them, the Chiefs are the top running team in the league (190.4 rushing yards pergame) and this is just not a favorable defensive matchup for the Raiders. Oakland allows 4.75 a pop on the ground and Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones are going to run all day on them. Kansas City is 17-4-2 to the OVER after scoring 15 points or less in their last game. Given the fact that the Chiefs are averaging an eye-popping 190 yards per game on the ground, and Oakland is allowing 127 per game on the ground, it's pretty safe to assume KC will get to 125+ on the ground Sunday. Why is that important? The Chiefs are 54-31 OVER in their last 85 games when reaching that mark. They are 8-1 OVER the past three seasons when they rush for 175+ which is attainable here. Oakland is 16-4 OVER at home in their last 20 games when they allow 5+ yards per rush. I like this game to go OVER the total.