Kansas City at Jacksonville

OK, Jacksonville lost last week. But to a pretty good San Diego team. After starting strong, their defense has weakened. The Jaguars have their issues but they are nothing like those of the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs still can't stop anyone. In their four games this season, they have given up 34, 28, 24, and 24 points per game respectively. Kansas City struggles primarily against the run (26th in the league). While Fred Taylor has had his moments, he hasn't dominated as most expected him to do this year. In his defense, Jacksonville has faced several very good defenses including Buffalo and Denver. I think this is the game he, and the Jacksonville offense, finally explodes. The Jags have slowly made progress on the offensive side of the ball, scoring progressively more per contest each game over the last four weeks. Road teams at +3 to -3 that are playing mistake-free football (committing 1 or less turnovers/game) following a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers fail to cover the spread 83% of the time. Also, home underdogs or pick after 4 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers cover the spread 78% of time time. The Jags also qualify for a situational trend that involves average rushing defenses vs. great rushing teams that is 42-16 against-the-spread over the past twenty years. The Jags are 2 point home underdogs and we'll ignore the spread and take them to win the game outright. Bet 300 to win 345 on Jacksonville to win the game straight-up.