Kansas City at Indianapolis

The Colts opened the season at Houston without Peyton Manning and it was quickly evident how valuable he is to this team. The Texans humbled the Colts 34-7. For the first time in a decade, Indianapolis has lost four games in a row, but they are getting much more competitive. They lost their last three games by a total of just 18 points and covered the spread in the last two. It takes a while to figure out how to win without your star player and the Colts may just be getting there. The Chiefs fooled everyone last season, coming out of nowhere to earn a playoffs spot. But, that peformance was aided significantly by a very soft schedule (they beat only one winning team). Lost in the luster of making the playoffs a year ago is the fact that the Chiefs haven't been very playoff like in their last nine games. Kansas City has suffered five of their six losses in their last nine games by a combined 154 points. That is a hard-to-believe 30.8 points per game. The loss of Charlie Weis was huge and this team simply isn't good. The Colts may be winless, but they certainly have been more competitive than the Chiefs and at 0-4 and at home, they can sure smell a win here. I expect the Colts to play their best game of the season. The Chiefs are now just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. the AFC, and have duplicated that futility vs. the Colts, producing an identical 2-8 ATS mark in their last 10 meetings. The Colts get in the win column here.