Kansas City at Houston

The Chiefs have just one blemish on the season and it occurred last week vs the Colts. A lot of people keep waiting for the "real" Chiefs to show up and falter. They continue to not believe. At some point, we have to give this team some credit. They did an amazing job defensively on the road last week vs. the high octane Colts offense. Peyton Manning could not get his team into the end zone until there was just four minutes left in the game. The Chiefs aren't quite as good as their undefeated start to the season, but they are a solid team. Charlie Weiss and Romeo Crennel simply know how to run an offense and a defense very well and these two guys are worth a handful of wins per season. Houston was supposed to have a breakout year - again. But this team hasn't been blowing out anyone and has had to fight to even be 3-2 as they have won all three games by a total of 20 points while the two loses have been blowouts. Their biggest problem right now is a hobbling Andre Johnson and an inconsistent Matt Schaub. Schaub has really had one standout game (468 yards vs. Washington) but he has had three bad games. The Chiefs should have more success here than they did in Indianapolis as the 31st ranked Texans defense is stopping no one. KC is a perfect 7-0 ATS the past three seasons when facing weak pass defenses (those allowing 64%+ completion rate). Kansas City is suddenly making some noise on the road taking a 6-2 ATS mark as a road dog in their last eight into this one. The Texans have managed to cover just one of their last six as a home favorite. Under Gary Kubiak, this team is 0-8 ATS vs. teams that stop the run (allow under 90 yards per game rushing). I like Kansas City in this one.