Kansas City at Denver

I'm not convinced Denver will win more than 8 games this season but give Shanahan time to prepare, especially for a home game, and you're looking at a winner. Denver is 18-4 ATS in the first two weeks of the season. Also, Denver is 12-4 ATS at home when the spread is +3 to -3 and 5-1 ATS at home against division rivals. Finally, week one home teams that aren't big favorites fare very well (about 75% ATS) when facing a good team that struggled in the preseason (KC won just one game). Kansas City's problem last year, as we all know, was defense. They made the right move in bringing in Gunther Cunningham to retool it. I think by midseason he'll have them playing excellent defense but my feeling is that it will take a few weeks of live action to get them to a point of respectability. Under the national TV spotlight on Sunday night where Denver will have a very loud crowd, expect Denver to win and cover. One unit on Denver -3.