Kansas City at Denver

6-1 vs. 2-5. This is a no-brainer, right? Bettors certainly think so, with 65% of the bets in this one coming in on the mighty Chiefs. They can see the two or three TD blowout already. But I see this playing out differently. No matter how much Denver struggles it always seems to keep it close against division foe Kansas City. The Broncos had covered three straight meetings before losing 19-8 to the Chiefs on Oct. 12, missing the fourth straight cover by a half-point. Denver got their second win of the season 19-17 over Green Bay on Sunday when Will Lutz kicked a go-ahead 52-yard field goal with 3:50 left. Denver had a 339-331 edge in total yards and Russell Wilson had his most efficient performance of the season completing 20 of 29 for for 194 yards with no interceptions and a touchdown. The Broncos appear to finally be improving under new coach Sean Payton and they are 10-1 ATS the past 11 years in Week 8. The good news is KC will be hard pressed not to underestimate the Broncos here. Kansas City is 7-19 ATS after scoring more than 30 points its previous game and 8-20-1 ATS overall as a favorite of 3.5-10.0 points. Dating back to last season, Kansas City is just 1-8 ATS after a double-digit win. The Denver defense has come a long way since giving up 70 points against Miami as the Broncos have allowed 23.8 points its past four games. Denver has allowed just 18 points per game in division games this season. Sean Payton coached teams step up in the underdog role, going 49-31 ATS overall including 25-12 ATS in the +3.5 to +9.5 range. He's also 18-5 ATS in same-season revenge games. Take the points with the Broncos as my Game of the Month.