Kansas City at Denver

The Broncos opened 6-0 last season and ended up not making it to the playoffs. Since that abberation, this Josh McDaniels led team is just 4-14 straight up. They have been outscored by 134 points and have lost five games by 17 or more. Yet, they are favored over a 5-3 team? Clearly the Broncos are not a good team, while the Chiefs have turned the corner. This is also a really bad matchup for Denver as their biggest weakness gets a very stiff test on Sunday. The Broncos rank 31st of 32 teams against the rush, allowing 155 rushing yards per game. The Chiefs are ranked #1 in the league in rushing, grinding out 180 yards a game on the ground. Since McDaniels took over, the Broncos are 0-7 ATS when they allow 150+ yards on the ground. They are also 0-7 ATS the past three seasons at home vs. division foes. To make things tougher on Denver, the KC defense has now reached top ten status at #9. It's time to forget about all the disastrous seasons the Chiefs have had in recent years. This team is now legit and they are the best team on the field in this one. Coming off a divisional loss, this is an important game for Kansas City and I think they show up. I like the Chiefs here. I also like the UNDER. Kansas City is a possession team with a lethal running game and a defense that has held opponents to 20 or less in seven of their eight games in regulation minutes. Denver has only topped the total in one of their last eight as a home dog. The Chiefs are now 12-4-1 to the UNDER vs. a team with a losing record. The Broncos are 6-0 UNDER in the Josh McDaniels era at home vs. good teams (.600+). I like Kansas City and UNDER in this one.