Kansas City at Baltimore

Baltimore is one of two elite teams left in these playoffs, with all the rest a good notch or two below. I was on KC last week for the upset, but now I'm gonna fade them. The Ravens have won seven of their past eight games and the only loss was when they sat several starters in the regular season finale against Pittsburgh. Lamar Jackson is expected to win the NFL MVP award, and for good reason. Last week against Houston Jackson became the first quarterback since at least 1948 with at least two TD passes, two TD runs, 100 yards rushing, and a 100 passer rating in the same game. The Ravens are 10-3 ATS their past 13 playoff games and 18-7-2 ATS overall against teams with winning records. The Ravens have the most victories over opponents with winning records (11) in the Super Bowl era. Baltimore is superior in all departments - offense, defense and special teams. Their win over the Texans was extremely impressive and helped to erase some previous playoff failures especially for Jackson, who had won just one of four postseason games before Saturday. Kansas City is always a threat, but they just aren't the same team this season. Last week Patrick Mahommes was 17 of 23 for 215 yards and threw two TD passes to Travis Kelce. Solid, but not world-beating. Both teams have great defenses, but the Chiefs haven't gone against anyone like Jackson this season. Baltimore is 5-3-1 OVER its past nine games, 4-1-1 OVER its past six home games, and 4-0 OVER after allowing fewer than 15 points its previous game. The Chiefs have gone OVER four of five road games, they are 11-4 OVER as road underdogs. Under Andy Reid, the Chiefs are 25-14 OVER as an underdog including 13-3 OVER as dogs in this range (3.5 to 9.5 points). The Reid-led Chiefs are also 41-28 OVER on the road in conference games and 27-15 OVER on the road with a total between 42.5 and 49 points. Take the Ravens on the moneyline and bet the OVER as a Max Play.