Kansas City at Arizona

Kansas City took a step back in the offseason trading star WR Tyreek Hill to Miami for five draft picks. With the speedy Hill gone, defenses can be flexible with more man coverage as opposed to the constant Cover-two. The defense has holes getting the fourth-fewest sacks in the NFL, ranked #22 on third down, while the secondary got burned often and finished #26 in passing yards surrendered. That secondary has new looks everywhere losing three starters. Kansas City is 10-13 ATS as a road favorite. Arizona is a home dog despite making the playoffs while also having a star QB in Kyler Murray. Murray has a ton of talent around him, too, in TE Zach Ertz, RB James Conner, and WRs A.J. Green and DeAndre Hopkins. And the offense gets even better after trading for WR Marquise Brown, who had over 1,000 yards with Baltimore. Arizona's defense was #13 on third down and the team is 18-8 ATS as an underdog, including 10-2 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. And NFL underdogs that averaged 24+ points in the previous season are 43-16 ATS. Play Arizona.