Jacksonville at New York

As bad as a season as Jacksonville has had, the Jets have arguably been worse. New York has been outscored by 178 points, the worst differential in the NFL. The bumbling Jets haven't been in the role of favorite all season until now. How will they respond? Their quarterbacks have been sacked 42 times while combining for 17 TDs and 20 picks. The offense will be without its top two receivers in WR Elijah Moore and Corey Davis, while third-leading WR and top pass catcher Jamison Crowder might not play with a calf injury. Also, the defense is last in the NFL in yards allowed and points surrendered (30.6 per game). New York is 25-42 ATS against teams that run for 4.5 yards per carry and 1-10 ATS at home versus opponents that get outscored by 10+ points per contest. Jacksonville averages 4.6 yards per rush, which takes some of the heat off of rookie QB Trevor Lawrence (28 sacks). The Jaguars get tight end, Dan Arnold, back for this one, who was out the last month. He was a key target for Lawrence before his injury, and the Jaguars are 8-3 ATS against the Jets. While these teams give up a lot of points, the offenses average a combined 31.9 points per game. When facing poor pass defenses (61%+ opponent pass completion rate) this season, the Jags are 8-2 to the UNDER. Overall, Jacksonville is 11-3 to the UNDER this season, including 11-1 as a dog. Go with the Jaguars and the UNDER.