Jacksonville at New England

The Jaguars have gone from a team that was brutally bad last season to one playing for the AFC Championship and a trip to the Super Bowl. Jacksonville comes in off another impressive win, scoring 45 points at Pittsburgh. The Jags defense is stout up front with fast defensive backs, which on paper, matches up well with New England's offense. However, they have been a mixed bag against talented spread offenses. They beat Pittsburgh handily twice, but they also lost 27-24 at Arizona, lost 27-17 to the high-octane Rams offense at home, and gave up 44 points to former Patriots' QB Jimmy Garoppolo in a loss against San Francisco. This team also lost twice to the Titans, a team the Patriots rolled over last week, 35-14. Even thought they won last week they gave up 42 points which is of major concern when coming into to Foxboro to face Tom Brady. While their average defensive numbers are very good, the Jags have allowed three teams to score 37+ points. New England's defense has been very good since a bad start to the season, but they remain ranked #29 in the NFL in yards allowed. Perhaps the total being set in the mid-to-upper 40s is a clue that the oddsmakers believe the Jags' defense will not hold up vs. New England, and I agree. The Pats have gone for 396+ yards in 11 games, and it sure looks as though they will do so here as well, as they have gone for 370+ in all but one home game. It may surprise most that Jacksonville averages 26.2 points per game on the season because all the talk is about the defense. Over the past three seasons, the Jags are 11-2 to the OVER when facing good offenses (teams averaging 24+ points per game). Under Bill Belichick, the Pats are 47-28 OVER at home tot a total over 45. I think that they can move the ball enough on the Pats to supplement the game scoring enough to push this one OVER. Play this one to finish OVER the total.