Jacksonville at Houston

We have a perfect storm brewing in Texas this week with Jacksonville coming in off a huge Monday Night win as a 10-point dog to the previously once beaten Ravens. The Jags held the Ravens without a first down for 2.5 quarters of football. So this week Jacksonville is viewed as a defensive stalwart. Houston arrives home after a stifling defensive effort against the Titans on the road, holding them to 148 yards of total offense. Houston is now being lined in the total at home at barely over 40, like they are suddenly a defensive team. Over the last four years this team has not been posted at home at less than 42 on the total. This is a huge over-adjustment based on a single week. This is still a Houston team that averages 26 points per game. Remember that before the great defensive effort vs. Tennessee a week ago, the Texans had allowed 54 points in their previous two games. Jacksonville is certainly improved defensively, but last week has to be weighed vs. their previous five games where the Jags allowed 23.6 ppg. These teams are a lot closer than the huge line here. Houston historically has played well as a dog and poorly as a favorite, where they are 19-24-2 ATS in franchise history. The Texans also have a long history of laying an egg following a good performance. They are just 18-33 ATS when coming off a win. Jacksonville has a bye next week and teams going into a bye and playing on the road as a dog of +6.5 or more are 26-13 ATS over the last nine years. They will come into this one with some confidence and a lot of focus, willing to lay it all on the line to get a win before their two weeks off. The Texans have played to the OVER at a 23-10 clip following a game where they had more than 350 yards in total offense, as well as 20-8 to the OVER vs. the AFC South in their last 28. This series has seen six of the last eight top the total as well. Under Gary Kubiak, the Texans are 22-10 to the OVER in division games. I look for Maurice Jones-Drew to pound the ball for Jacksonville and for the Jags to keep it close in a high scoring game.