Jacksonville at Dallas

The talent level says 5-1, but the record says 1-5. Such is the fate of the Dallas Cowboys. The wise coach Bill Parcels once said, "You are what the record says you are" and right now Dallas is just not a good team. We went against them Monday night and despite getting three Giants turnovers and a punt return TD to start the game, the Cowboys still got destroyed. I've questioned Dallas' play calling and coaching all season, but now things get worse without Tony Romo leading the offense. Jon Kitna has to step in and make things happen for Dallas and his last two seasons as a starter saw him top the 20 INT mark both years. The Dallas run game is ranked 30th in the league, producing just 86 yards per game. Fortunately, he will be facing a Jacksonville defense that hasn't done much of anything, so Dallas will score here, but so will the Jaguars. David Garrard is back at the helm in this one and the Dallas defense is allowing over 25 points per game, ranked #27 in the league. The Cowboys are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games. Here we have a very bad team with their backup quarterback making his first start, playing nearly a touchdown. I like the Jags to cover. I also like the OVER in this game. As a home favorite of 3.5-10, Dallas has played each of the last four OVER. Meanwhile, the Jags in the role as a dog from 3.5-10, have played 6-1 to the OVER. In October games, Wade Phillips coached teams are 25-9 OVER and also 13-4 OVER in games when he's facing a defense that allows 5.7+ yards per play. I like Jacksonville and the OVER here.