Jacksonville at Cleveland

This one looks like a defensive game in Cleveland, right? Ahhh, no. The general public thinks so, which is why this total is low, but let's take a closer look. Jacksonville is bad on defense, ranked 18th against the pass and 29th versus the run. And they are giving up points: 27, 27, 42, 24, 35, 24, 37 and 45 in eight of their last nine games. As a result, the Jags are on a 5-2 run OVER the total, 4-1 OVER in their last five road games. QB Chad Henne is a significant upgrade over Blaine Gabbert, and has thrown for 239 and 255 yards the last two games. He faces a Cleveland defense that hasn't had a sack in two games. And, this defense has allowed a whopping 16 touchdown passes in their past six games. The last place Browns have been giving up points as well, 27, 41, 18, 23, 31, 31 and 24 the last seven games. Cleveland is on a 5-2 run OVER the total, and the OVER is 4-1 in the Browns last five against the AFC. Go with the OVER.