Jacksonville at Buffalo

The Jets were just too strong defensively for the Bills last week in a tough matchup. The Bills stink, right? Meanwhile everyone watched the Jaguars upset the Colts, looking rather impressive in the win. The Jags must be decent, right? Sometimes things aren't exactly as they appear. The Jags always seem to play the Colts tough, but let's not forget that the Jags lost 28-3 and 38-13 in their prior two weeks. This is the perfect letdown spot after a big win at home vs. a division rival, now heading on the road in a game facing the 0-4 Bills. The Bills had all of one first down at the half a week ago against the Jets defense, and Ryan Fitzpatrick didn't complete a pass until almost mid-way through the first quarter. It has the public lining up on the Jags at about 65%. The Jags defense won't offer anywhere near the resistance the Bills got from the Jets. In fact the Jags pass defense is ranked dead last in the league, so look for Buffalo to have a lot more success moving the chains in this one. The energy level for the Jags after facing the Colts has always gone down, and after their big win taking on a supposed "cupcake" in the Bills, I expect them to lay an egg here. Past situations for them in this spot show exactly that. Jacksonville is just 1-7 ATS as a favorite following a game vs. the Colts. Overall in the past three seasons, they are 1-11 ATS after a division game (15-26 ATS in this spot under Jack Del Rio). And, the Jags simplyl can't capitalize when palying bad teams. Jacksonville is 1-8 ATS the past three seasons when facing teams that average under 285 yards per game on offense. Buffalo may be 0-4, but these teams have been cash cows in the NFL as 0-4 NFL teams are 22-8 ATS in their last 30. I like Buffalo in this one.