Jacksonville at Buffalo

Jacksonville strolls into Buffalo with the league's third best defense in both points and yards allowed. They've been a bit under the radar on this front as the media prefers to tout the defenses of Denver, Carolina, Baltimore and Miami - all of which are worse than the Jags. After Chicago, you can make a case for Jacksonville as having the best defense of the remainder of the teams. Not good for Buffalo - a team ranked 29th in scoring and 30th in yards gained. They score 16.4 ppg and with Jacksonville holding opponents to 13.7, it will be very difficult for the Bills to score today. And Jacksonville is no offensive powerhouse, putting up just 21 ppg. They had two blowout games against terrible defenses in which they scored 41 vs. the Jets and 37 against Tennessee. Take those two games out and they are averaging just 16.6 per game. The oddsmakers expect an 19-16 affair. But we don't see Buffalo managing over 14 and maybe not more than 10. Against elite defenses this year (NE, MIA, MIN, CHI), they are averaging just 12.6 per game. And, defenses of this caliber (NE and CHI) have held the Bills to a touchdown or less. This is more likely to be a 17-10 game.