Indianapolis at Tennessee

What a difference a year or a QB makes, you decide. The Colts are still looking for their first win at 0-7, and last week had to be the ultimate embarrassment for a team used to winning year after year. Yes, I was on the Colts last week and they were completely thrashed by the Saints on a nationally televised Sunday Night affair 62-7. The good thing for the Colts is that it only counts as one loss, and will likely serve as a wake-up call. When you get beat down that badly in the NFL, you often come back in a huge way Just ask the Bucs who lost 48-3 to San Francisco earlier this season and followed that up with a straight-up upset win over New Orleans the next week. The next good thing for the Colts is that the Titans aren't very good. Tennessee's defense, which stood tall in their first four games, has now been drilled or 79 points in two weeks. The offense last week was limited to 148 yards by a Texans team that certainly hasn't gained the reputation for defense. That makes them a dangerous play as a huge favorite. The Colts are the epitome of ugly at this point, and fall into the category of a winless team from Week 8 on. Those teams have gone 50-25 ATS since 1989, and an even better 23-9 ATS as a road dog. Better still, they are getting more than a TD at 17-6-1 ATS. Tennessee is the better team here, but not by 9 points. Ugly wins long term in the NFL. As hard as it is, take the Colts plus the points.