Indianapolis at Tennessee

The Colts are a .500 team, yet the public is backing them here like they are the Colts of old. Nine out of every ten bets coming in on this game are backing Indy. The Colts find themselves in a very unfamiliar scenerio as we head into week 14 this year, as they are looking up in the AFC South at the Jacksonville Jaguars. Indianapolis has lost four of five games and three in a row and Joe Square is telling himself that they can't possibly lose another! It is in fact quite possible as the issues on this team run deep. The Colts' three-game losing streak is a first since 2002. This team has no running game, and Peyton Manning has struggled with numerous injuries to his potential targets. Manning has put together back-to-back games with four interceptions each and he has thrown 11 INT's in the last three weeks - a career high for three consecutive games. He is still a good quarterback for sure, but he will finish this game (number 13) with more passes thrown on the season than any previous full year as he is on his way to well over 700 tosses. He has thrown for less yards per attempt than in any year of his career. Manning has gone six games without finishing a game with a 100+ QB rating - the longest such run in his career. Those numbers are bad, but the defensive numbers are also distrubing. The Colts have allowed 30+ points in each of their last three games. That has not happened since 2001. As much as we want to believe Manning will right this ship, this team is lost on both sides of the ball right now and they are now being asked to cover more than a field goal on the road. That's asking a lot. Granted, Tennessee has been bad this year and they have lost five straight games. But, teams in the NFL that have lost five in a row are 95-72 ATS in their next game as a home dog. Chris Johnson isn't having the kind of year he had in 2009 but he is still a good back and should find success vs. a Colts defense that is ranked 29th in the league in rushing yards allowed (143 yards per game). The Titans are a perfect 6-0 ATS the past three seasons vs. teams that allow 130+ yards per game on the ground. The Colts, even when they were great, have really struggled to cover the spread vs. bad teams. In their last 27 games vs. teams at .400 to .499, the Colts have gone 7-20 ATS. My computer matchup for this game (not an official pick) pegs this game as a statistical toss-up. I agree and I'm grabbing the 3.5 points on Tennessee.