Indianapolis at Tennessee

The Colts are on their way to another season notching a very high win total. They have had to do it without much of a running game and a bad run defense. But this isn't the same team as last season. Last year at this stage they were blowing out everyone in sight with wins of 21, 25, 17, 18, 19, and 14 points. This year, despite an identical 10-1 record, they have had only three double digit wins. Teams are simply sticking a lot closer to them than they were last year. They have yet to post back-to-back games of big margin wins. The fact is that seven of this year's ten Indy wins (5, 7, 3, 1, 3, 7, 1) would not cover this line! Tennessee has done an about face thanks primarily to Vince Young. They started 0-5, and have suddenly won four of their last six, covering six of their last seven! But, it isn't just the QB. This entire team has improved dramatically. They averaged 12 ppg over the first five games and gave up 31.4 ppg, on average losing by 19.4 ppg. The past six games they are averaging 20.1 ppg and giving up just 20.2 ppg. That's a 19.3 ppg swing! It not only looks like a different team, it is! It is never a good idea to give up a TD+ to a team at home, especially one that is playing very well. This year teams getting 7 or more at home are 7-2 ATS with two outright wins and three one point losses. Indianapolis is 10-1, but seven of the games were one possession games, meaning they won by a TD or less. We will take the surging Titans to stay in this one.