Indianapolis at New England

Even dating back to the Baltimore days, the Colts have never won a Championship on the road in the history of their storied franchise. And most don't give them much of a chance here vs. the mighty Patriots. Most see this Colts team as a premiere offensive team with a suspect defense. A deeper look reveals otherwise, and I think that is where the value comes into this game. The Seattle Seahawks and the Detroit Lions led the league in scoring defense this year, holding 11 opponents on the season to 17 points or less. I don't think many would believe that the third place team in this stat is the Indianapolis Colts, having done so nine times on the season! Of course this game is also about Hall of Fame veteran QB of Tom Brady vs. the emerging Hall of Fame potential QB in Andrew Luck. Here is how that has panned out. Brady has faced the Colts four times in the postseason, averaging 203 yards per game, and has never thrown for more than one TD. In his career, Luck has faced the Patriots' defense three times, and thrown for over 300 yards in all three games. I think this is a favorable match-up for an Indianapolis team that has allowed 13 points or fewer in four of their last five games. This defense can get pressure on Brady as Indy is one of the best teams in the league at sacking the quarterback - a key attribute this time of the year. And, as we have seen in past playoff games, getting to Brady is key to beating New England (just ask the Giants). Meanwhile Luck has had a great deal of success against New England in the air in his three games against them. New England is average at getting after the QB and Luck has had great protection of late. He will have success. If Belichick takes T.Y. Hilton out of the game with Darelle Revis, Luck has shown his ability to find and use many other targets, as he did last week in Denver. Last week Luck spread the ball around to eight different receivers. He, like all of the great ones, can beat you with mutiple weapons and isn't vexed when you take away his first option (a Belichick staple). Patriots fans have to be conerned that the Pats offense which was lighting things up for most of the season, has been on a downtick the past six weeks. Through the first 11 weeks of the season, New England was averaging 32.5 points per game. Since then, they have gotten just 24.3 per game - a drop of more than a touchdown per game. In the end, these offense are pretty similar, and I expect each to have a lot of success, scoring in the mid-to-high 20s or low 30s. And, while there doesn't seem to be much talk of it this week, let's not forget the Patriots' recent failures in the playoffs. While this team is consistently amazing during the regular season, Brady and Belichick are just 2-9 ATS as the #1 seed in the playoffs, and just 3-10 ATS overall in postseason games since 2007. Since last season, Luck and the Colts are 11-7 straight-up on the road and they have a winning record straight-up as an underdog. In seven home games vs. high-powered offenses (those averaging 24+ ppg) over the past two seasons, New England is a perfect 7-0 to the OVER. They are also 17-6 to the OVER at home to a total that is higher than 45 points. In the Belichick era, the Pats are 15-4 OVER at home in games with a total of 50 or higher. The Pats have been the better team all season, but let's not forget that they were down by 14 twice last week and are vulnerable here. The Colts are peaking at the right time, especially on defense as they have held four of their last five opponents to 13 points or less. Indy has a chance to pull this one out. Take the Colts against the spread and on the moneyline. Also grab the OVER as I expect a shoot-out.