Indianapolis at New England

To me this game is all about someone not playing: Rob Gronkowski. I can't lay a touchdown on New England without him. And, without him, the Pats offense is a whole different animal. The Indianapolis Colts staged the second-biggest comeback in NFL playoff history a week ago, and should be riding a high heading to New England. The Colts have been a very erratic offensive team this year. They have scored 37 points or more three times, and 11 or less three times. The defense has played in similar fashion as they held six teams to 14 points or less this season, while allowing 40+ to three other teams. New England comes into this game with an offense that is not nearly as good as previous editions, and they average 7 points per game fewer on offense than they did a year ago. That is the first part of the equation. The second part is the New England offense generated 32.8 points per game in the six full games played by Rob Gronkowski, while in their nine games without him they generated just 23.3 ppg. That is another 10 ppg wiped out of the Patriots' offensive output. Since the 2001-02 season, New England has hosted 18 playoff games. With much better offenses in those games, they scored 20 points or less in eight of them, 23 points or less in 11 of them, and got to 30 just five times, despite averaging over 30 ppg during the time frame. This offense is no where near as capable. The Pats have also allowed just one opponent to score as many as 30 points here in a playoff game. Expectations are always high when New England takes the field in terms of points, but this one just doesn't get there. Go with the UNDER.