Indianapolis at Los Angeles

The Indianapolis Colts have started strong at 4-1, and no win was bigger than last week's thrilling home win vs. Seattle. The Colts came from behind to win a 34-28 shootout. Coming off that game on short rest, it could be tough for a young team to get sky-high again here. This is a hungry San Diego team that is looking to even their record at 3-3. A loss here drops them to 2-4 which, if not catastrophic, really puts a damper on their hopes for the season. This is in essence a must-win game for the Bolts. History shows that the Colts are indeed likely to be flat here. Good teams (those over .500) that won as a home dog in their previous game are 80-129 ATS in their next game since 1989. That is even worse from game five on (legitimizing their winning record), as they are 43-91 ATS, including 29-62-3 ATS if playing on the road. San Diego finds themselves in a good spot, as teams that are playing as a home dog that will be road favorites in their next game (San Diego at Jacksonville next week), are 119-65-9 ATS. Andrew Luck is getting a lot of attention, and deservedly so. But, according to the stats, he's the second best QB playing tonight. If we look at traditional passer rating, Rivers comes in as the #2 QB in the league with a rating of 110.6 (only behind Peyton Manning). Luck is rated 10th with a 94.1 rating. ESPN's new QBR rating agrees, rating Rivers second only to Manning, at 78.5, again ahead of Luck. Rivers has found new life under Mike McCoy and I expect him to play well tonight. Yes, the Colts are 4-1 while San Diego is just 2-3. But, the Chargers would be 3-2 coming into this game if not for a 5-0 turnover disadvantage last week vs. the Raiders. If San Diego doesn't turn it over five times last week, then they are probably favored here. We get line value on the home team, in need. The Chargers have the second best QB in the league thus far, and San Diego is desperate for a win. Take the Chargers.