Indianapolis at Jacksonville

Jacksonville opened a 17-0 lead on Philadelphia in the first half in game one and has been outscored 75-10 since in the last six quarters. That will have most staying far away from them in this one. Things haven't been quite as bad for Indianapolis, but they have opened the season at 0-2 as well. You do have to look at one key factor with Jacksonville, and that is how they shut Philadelphia out while their best defensive back, John Cyprien, was on the field in their opener. Cyprien missed last week, but returns for this one, and Jacksonville as played leaps and bounds better defensively with him on the field: 17-0 worth of better against 10-75 without him. While I don't think the difference is as big as the score indicates, it is a big factor on the Jags' defense. Jacksonville finished last season strong, but is desperate have a pair of big losses out of the gate to start this year's campaign. Teams that lose their first two games by a combined margin of more than 45 points are 10-3 ATS in game three, so expect the Jags to bring a strong effort. They also have a tendency to play very well defensively as seven of those 13 opponents scored 17 points or less. The Colts are 24-2 ATS following a straight-up loss, but remember that they were in the same spot last week and lost. And, this is a huge road spread for the NFL. Indy has posted a 14-6 mark to the UNDER in their last 20 vs. a losing team, while Jacksonville is 22-10-1 to the UNDER in their last 33 games within the conference (including 10-2 UNDER in home conference games the past three seasons). And each of the last six in this series have fallen shy of the total. Go with Jacksonville and the UNDER.