Indianapolis at Jacksonville

Jacksonville is the Rodney Dangerfield of the NFL this year. They are 3-0, have beaten two great defenses in Denver and Buffalo and a playoff team in Tennessee last week. Yet, here they are as an underdog of over a field-goal at home. We were all over JAX last week and we'll stick with them again. As I stated last week, I don't view their close wins as a weakness. I view them as a sign of strength. They find ways to win ballgames in the face of adversity. They have a stifiling defense that is allowing under 10 points per game and two of their games were against explosive offenses. This team reminds me of recent Super Bowl champs Tampa Bay and New England: Great defense, solid coaching and enough offense to win. Can they do it against the high-powered Indianapolis offense? Well, they did hold Steve McNair to 143 yards and sacked him three times and picked him off once. They've got a shot at keeping Manning in check. They also have a chance to finally score some points. Indianpolis' defense is ranked.... drum rolll please... dead last in the league. In September games, home dogs of less than a touchdown vs. an opponent that scored 35+ last week cover the spread 74% of the time. One unit on Jacksonville +3.5 and one unit on them to pull out the win.