Indianapolis at Jacksonville

The Indianapolis Colts were in danger of matching the Detroit Lions’ record for futility last year as they opened 0-13. But they then won two of their last three and now sit at 7-4 over their last 11 games. The Colts now head to Jacksonville on a three-game winning streak with a rookie quarterback that is turning heads and gaining confidence every week. Andrew Luck has impossible expectations coming into this season. Number one picks always have very high expectations. And, they say never follow a legend. He has done it and has done the unimaginable as very few Colts fans regret getting rid of Manning. As the game has slowed down for Luck, he has gained control. His first five games saw Luck throw seven INTs. But over his last three games he has thrown just one. Since turnovers are crucial to winning in the NFL, the Colts are now turning potential losses into wins. The same can't be said for Jacksonville. This team has found the win column just one time in the first half of the season. They have lost five straight games, are the NFL's lowest scoring team, and their home field has provided them with no advantage as they are 0-4 here. Without Maurice Jones-Drew to do the heavy lifting on offense, the Jaguars have been unable to mount any sort of scoring threat. The Jags were so bad last week vs. the Lions that they managed to run off just 18 total plays in the first half. This team's scoring margin in their four home games is -92, which no team has matched in the last 10 NFL seasons in terms of home futility. Jacksonville has scored just one TD at home when not trailing by less than 17 points! This is a revenge game for the Colts and with Luck playing like he is, and Gabbert on the other side, I find it very hard to believe Jacksonville sweeps this series. The spread makes me nervous given how square a play the Colts ATS would be. Instead, take Indianapolis on the moneyline.