Indianapolis at Jacksonville

We've faded the Colts in both of their losses this year and we look for the hatrick here. Indianapolis enters this game with their typical good 10-2 record, while Jacksonville enters at 7-5. It is certainly a bigger game for Jacksonville as they make their final push for the playoffs, and a home loss here would put them in serious jeopordy of not making it. Tony Dungy has shown again he cares little about the regular season record. The Colts have not shown nearly the same explosiveness as they have in the past few years. This time last year they had already scored 30+ in a game seven times and had a streak of 9 in a row of 26 or more. It seems without a running game, and without being able to stop the run, it has put an extra burden on this offense to be consistently explosive. When they don't get that massive offense this year, they lose. They have been held to 17 or less in three of the past four games. They have had just two games vs. teams in the top 25% in the league in yards allowed per game and have managed just 17.5 ppg. Here they face a defense that is #3 in the leauge in yards allowed, #2 in yards per play and #4 in scoring defense. The biggest problem for the Colts, however, is their defense. Indianapolis is a league worst when it comes to allowing opponents to convert 3rd downs at 47.9%. They have also allowed 9 of 11 4th down conversions. The two combined means that teams are allowing opponents to convert over 50% in these situations. It translates into 20.1 first downs a game, and near the bottom of the league in yards per play at 5.5. Jacksonville's defense, as good as it is overall, absolutely excels at home. It has actually been a better defensive team at home than the high profile Bears. The last five games here, they have given up 3 touchdowns and just 30 points, or 6 ppg. They have outscored their last five opponents at home by 123-30! Jacksonville stands 5th in the league in allowing just 5.20 points per 100 yards gained. These top five teams stand 9-3-1 ATS this year as an underdog! Simply put, the wrong team is favored. Look for the Jags to hand the Colts their third loss in four games.