Indianapolis at Jacksonville

Indianapolis is playing hard, covering three of the last four games. Despite being big underdogs in those games they've lost by 1, 3 and 4 points, while pulling a 20-14 upset at Houston as a +6 dog. The Colts are 32-12 ATS when following a straight-up loss, plus 46-26 ATS against teams allowing 17 points or fewer per game. They are also 35-17 UNDER the total against teams averaging 130+ yards rushing per game in the second half of the season. Jacksonville is just 2-2 SU/ATS at home and this is the biggest they've been as a favorite all season. Actually, they haven't been a favorite of more than a touchdown since 2009 -- a 23-20 win over the Rams as -9.5 chalk. QB Blake Bortles has an unimpressive 12 TDs, eight picks, while their top two running backs average 4.1 and 3.3 yards per carry. The Jaguars are doing it with defense, tops in the NFL in yards allowed and points, but they don't have much of a home field advantage, on 3-7 spread run at home. Jacksonville is a run-oriented, ball-control offense, at #29 in the NFL in passing yards and the UNDER is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings between these division rivals. Grab the points on Indianapolis and also take the UNDER.