Indianapolis at Houston

The Colts were completely exposed at Jacksonville two weeks ago and last Monday everyone wondered how they could stop the run vs. Cinncinati and keep the Bengals from scoring a huge amount of points. We got that question answered as the Colts easily handled the Bengals 34-16, playing a rare good game on defense. Nothing has changed though folks. That was a good situation for the Colts and as we said on Monday, their defense was bound to show up for that game after such a humiliating performance vs. the Jags. But can they do it twice in a row? Likely not. They are fat and happy again after that big key win. Now they face a lowly Houston squad that will not have the attention of the Colts. This game isn't about stats - it is about mindset. We have seen it in this Colts team before, as they have had uninspired efforts against teams that don't get their attention. They squeak by Tennessee by 1 at home and after going to New England and winning, they squeak past Buffalo by 1 also. This is a ton of points for a team that has a history of just playing well enough to win in these type of games. Let's not let Monday night's result deter us from the facts here. The Colts have the worst run defense in the league. Their running game is not very good. They by and large are not covering big numbers this year. They care about the playoffs and about beating good teams (like last week) to make a statement. They don't care about showing up vs. weak teams. That's not what Dungy and this Colts team is about. Dungy is in fact 4-14 ATS on the road in December games over the past decade and Indy is 8-20 ATS the past two weeks of the year over that span. Take the dog and the generous points.