Indianapolis at Green Bay

The Packers have had trouble on offense this season with Aaron Rodgers reaching 300 yards only once thus far in seven games. Just when it appeared to get back on track, the defense was torched by Matt Ryan and the Falcons in a 33-32 loss on Sunday. Ryan was nearly perfect, completing 28-of-35 passes for 288 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. The Falcons outgained the Packers 367-331 and Ryan hit Mohamed Sanu in the end zone with an 11-yard touchdown pass with just 31 seconds remaining to tie the game before the extra point won it. Green Bay is ranked 20th in the league in total offense yards per game (342.3) while Indianapolis is #13 (360.5). The Packers were counting on Eddie Lacy to bounce back from a disappointing season, but he is on injured reserve with an ankle injury. The Colts have split their last four games, including a fourth quarter meltdown against Houston. Andrew Luck has completed 63.7 percent of his passes for 16 touchdowns and five interceptions and should have success in this game. Indy is off an embarrassing performance vs. Kansas City in which the Colts were outgained by 145 yards and lost by 16 points. That is affecting this line and I like Indy's chances of bouncing back. Over the past two and a half seasons, the Colts are 8-1 ATS after a game in which they were outgained by 100+ yards. Chuck Pagano's teams have always gotten better as the season goes along as the Colts are 24-13 ATS under Pagano after the first month of the season. Take the points and play the Colts.