Indianapolis at Detroit

Detroit typically plays well on Thanksgiving day but how can we go against the Colts and Peyton Manning right now? Manning is on pace to shatter Dan Marino's single-season touchdown record of 48. At this rate, Manning will surpass that mark in week 15 and end up with 54 on the season. No situations here, no motivational factors. This is simply a matchup of an incredible team against a fairly bad one. Indy's off a 41-10 spanking of the Chicago Bears and a 49-14 win over Houston the week before. They're averaging a ridiculous 39 points per game over their last four. They are on fire and we're going to jump on this streak before it ends. In addition to Manning's work, Edgerrin James is playing like he did in 1999 and 2000 when he posted back-to-back rushing titles. He currently leads the AFC in rushing and is averaging a career-high 4.9 yards per rush. On top of the offensive performances, Indy's normal swiss-cheese defense has actually played decently as of late. They've held their last two opponents to under two touchdowns. They are allowing 23 points per game but let's look deeper. Against good offenses (top half in the league in scoring), the Colts have allowed 33 points per game. Against poor offensive teams (Detroit qualifies), they've allowed a very respectable 16.5 per game. Detroit's lost four straight and there's even talk of sitting Joey Harrington. Road teams that scored the most points the previous week and won their game by 25+ points are 4-0 ATS this year and 70% ATS historically. The Colts qualify under this angle today. While I rarely like to lay more than a touchdown, I can't see any way for the Lions to stay in this one. The Colts jump out early here and never look back. We'll go with them minus the points for one star (1% of bankroll).