Indianapolis at Cleveland

Indianapolis has won three in a row, covering all three. The defense has been outstanding, leading the NFL in yards allowed (236.3 per game), passing yards (159.3 per game), and points (14 per game). The Colts are 45-26 ATS against teams with a winning percentage above 75%, as well as 47-27 ATS versus opponents who average 4.5+ yards per rush. Cleveland comes home from a big victory at Dallas, though they lost starting running back Nick Chubb to a knee injury. That's a key blow to the league's top-ranked rushing attack. The Browns' defense is #24 in yards allowed, third-worst against the pass surrendering 310.5 yards per contest, and sixth-worst in points allowed (31.5 per game). Cleveland is 20-35 ATS versus opponents with a winning percentage above 75%, plus 66-91 ATS against teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better. Take Indianapolis.