Indianapolis at Buffalo

The Colts gave Andrew Luck more offensive weapons in the offseason, but they neglected a weak defense that lost 45-7 when we last saw them in the playoffs. They got run over by the New England ground game and that's what the Bills will try to do with Rex Ryan as coach. New RB LeSean McCoy says he is "ready to roll" in week one, which isn't a good sign for the suspect Colts defense. The Colts are on a 6-0-1 run UNDER the total, 7-3 UNDER on the road, and 6-1 UNDER the total against the AFC. The home crowd will be sky-high for their new coach and Ryan enters a great situation with a Bills squad that was 9-7 last year. This defense is a monster, leading the NFL in sacks the last two seasons with 54 and 57. DT Marcell Dareus (10 sacks) and DE Mario Williams (14.5) are a handful along with LB Jerry Hughes (9.5), the latter playing against the team here that originally drafted him. And the secondary looks strong behind CB Stephon Gilmore and safety Aaron Williams, with Leodis McKelvin available after offseason ankle surgery. Buffalo is on a 13-3 run UNDER the total, plus 12-4 UNDER in week one. Ryan likes mobile QB Tyrod Taylor, which will be a boon along with McCoy to keep the chains moving and keep the pigskin out of Luck's paws. Indy is 1-6 ATS in week one, while the Bills are 8-2 ATS in week one, plus on a 5-1 ATS run overall. When these teams meet the home team is 7-3-1 ATS, plus the UNDER is 4-1, including 4-1 UNDER here in Buffalo. And, the Bills went 13-3 UNDER las tseason. Go with Buffalo and the UNDER.