Indianapolis at Buffalo

Last week Buffalo hit a new low-point of the season, falling at home to the Texans, with their backup QB, as a 7 point favorite. It was their third-straight loss and a humiliating one. As they say, when you’re at rock-bottom, the only way to go is up. I expect Buffalo to come out with fired up this week. And, they have the weapons to keep this Indy offensive machine in check. Buffalo has the league’s second-best pass defense, fourth best total defense, and is allowing just 17 points per game. The problem, of course, has been their offense, ranked 29th in the league. They’ve managed just 21 points total in their last three games! This can’t continue. I expect them to adjust and find a way to produce some offense. Teams that have performed extremely poorly offensively for several games do very well ATS as home dogs. The Bills should be able to run the ball against the Colts who have allowed the most 100-yard rushers (six) in the league this year. Just as great teams can’t maintain great play every week, poor teams eventually break out of slumps. I believe this to be the week that Buffalo’s offense breaks out of its slump enough to win the game. The Colts needed a fake field goal last week to win and just covered the spread by one point. This week they will struggle again to win.