Indianapolis at Baltimore

The Colts appear to be a team of destiny this year. They haven't lost a game in over a year (18 games) and turned a sure loss into a win last week in New England. Peyton Manning is having one of his best years ever and that is saying a lot. Winning has been ingrained here and this team expects and wants to win every single one. That mindset is paying dividends. Manning leads the league in completion percent (70%), passing yards (2872) and touchdowns (20). He has a 104.2 passer rating (third best in the league). He's only been sacked eight times on the entire season - less than once per game. Baltimore's defense has looked good the last three games, but that includes games against Cleveland, Cincinnati and Denver. Cleveland can't score, Kyle Orton has really struggled of late, and Cincinnati is winning on defense, not offense. Against good offenses and quarterbacks, Baltimore has been lit up this season. They gave up 26 points to Phillip Rivers, 27 to Tom Brady, and 33 to Brett Favre. Baltimore's defense is still thought of by many to be dominant but they really are not. I expect Manning to find success. Joe Flacco has proven himself a very good quarterback and the Ravens have given him a much larger share of the load. But, Indy is 9-2 straight-up the past three seasons vs. QBs that complete 64%+ of their passes. The Colts are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine road games and they have gone 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. the Ravens. Even when the Raven's defense was one of the best in the NFL, Manning and the Colts averaged 26 ppg in those contests. Now with Baltimore's defense having slipped, and Indy playing better than anyone, why not expect another Colts win here? Baltimore is 2-7 straight-up the past three seasons vs. teams at .750 or better and they have lost 33 of their last 49 games vs. teams that allow 17 or fewere points per game. Finally, Indy is 10-1 straight-up since last season after an ATS loss. I like the Colts here.