Indianapolis at Baltimore

This is a classic match-up of offense vs. defense for the right to advance to the AFC Championship game. The Colts, while not the offensive juggernaut of years past, still features a potent offensive attack. They manhandled Kansas City last week which has the betting public backing them here. The problem they are facing is that this week they face a real Super Bowl contender and a Baltimore defense that gave up just 36 more points than the Superbowl version of 2000-01. The public loves offensive teams because they are exciting to watch and full of stars at the skill position. The betting public always prefers to be on that team that can score on any possession. But in the end, the boring defensive teams are where the money is made in the NFL playoffs. If you need confirmation of that here, let's examine the proof. In looking back through the NFL playoff teams that led the league in fewest points allowed that were equal to or less than the 201 that Baltimore allowed this season, you find gold. The fact that few teams even qualified is a statement unto itself about this defense. Since 1978 there have been only five teams that were this stingy. Those five teams won four Superbowls! Those teams played in 10 playoff games prior to the Superbowl and outscored their opponents 244-74! The average score was 24.4 to 7.4. It gets better. In the games that were played featuring these defensive stalwarts, nine of their ten opponents scored 10 points or less. Six of the ten teams never got into the endzone! Does defense matter in the post-season? The answer, when that defense is as good as Baltimore's, is a resounding yes. In fact, you'd have to be nuts to invest a dollar against it. Sure, Peyton Manning is a stud and this offense is great. But this game isn't in cozy Indianapolis agianst a patsy opponent like Kansas City. This game is in Baltimore against the best defense in the league. Indy's weak run defense gets exposed, Peyton struggles and the Colts get hammered here.