Indianapolis at Baltimore

For the last decade, Ray Lewis has been the Ravens’ spiritual and emotional leader. He announced his retirement this week, which means this is likely his last home game ever in Baltimore. While his skills have diminished, you know that the Ravens’ crowd will be in a playoffs frenzy, and his teammates are going to be ready to deliver him a going away present. The problem is, the Ravens are overrated and they come in on a big downswing having lost four of their last five games. They are just 1-5 ATS this season vs. playoff teams. The Indianapolis Colts made a miraculous turnaround from a year ago, winning 11 games this season with most of the credit going to Andrew Luck. Perhaps the name itself foreshadowed the Colts’ season, as Indy went 9-1 in games decided by one possession. Luck had a good rookie season, but not a great one, as he struggled a great deal and put up a pedestrian passer rating of 76.5 and threw 16 INTs on the season. The one huge difference here is that Luck threw 12 TDs at home, to just 3 INTs. But, the road was not kind to him, as he did throw for 11 TDs, but also an ugly 13 INTs. What that says to me is that he will still move the ball and get his yards and scores, but he is likely going to put a few in the Ravens’ hands. I would not be surprised to see a pick-six here or a few short drives for the Ravens to cash in on. The fact that the Colts play so many one-possession games, the line is a tough one, especially considering that the Colts are really not all they are advertised to be. They were outscored on the season, becoming the first 11-win team to do so. The Colts have played three winning teams on the road and have allowed them an average of 43 points per game. In those games, Indy averaged better than 20 ppg themselves, so there will be plenty of points to be had here. The Ravens have played 11 of their last 14 to the OVER when following a loss. Play the OVER.