Houston at Tennessee

The Houston Texans were uncharacteristically completely shutdown by the Jets last week. Their offense last year produced 21 points or more in 10 of their 16 games, and were a top-5 team in offensive yards. One of the teams that held Houston down last year was the Baltimore Ravens. That defense was of course lead by Rex Ryan who orchestrated last week's defensive beauty vs. the Texans. So, last week's offensive meltdown by Houston is at least somewhat explainable. The Texans did something against the Titans' defense last year that few teams were able to do, and that was to have their featured running back, Steve Slaton, gain over 100 yards in each of the two games. Assuming they can have running success again this weekend, that should open up Matt Schaub to some play-action passing. Without Albert Haynesworth clogging things up, I expect the Houston offense to score here. The Titans will find themselves in a flat spot here as they lost a tough game on the road in Pittsburgh as a big dog, and now come home in a completely opposite mode as a big favorite. The public sees a Titans team that was 13-3 a year ago and nearly won in Pittsburgh and a Houston team that laid an absolute egg last week, losing by 17 points as a favorite. They feel a Tennessee big win is in the cards. The public is all over Tennessee, yet this line has moved from the key number of 7 to 6.5 in many spots (although about half still offering 7). That tells you where the smart money is flowing. But, teams off a big upset loss tend to get fired up about it and come out swinging the next week. Houston was embarrassed and they will bring a much better effort this week. Gary Kubiak is 5-2 ATS as a divisional dog of up to seven, and the Texans were one of the three teams that beat the Titans a year ago. Under Jeff Fisher, the Titans are just 11-23 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. I look for Houston to get the cover here.