Houston at Tennessee

This game could go a long way of determining each of these teams utimate fates this season. They have each had an impressive win over Pittsburgh, and the winner here could take control of the division. The Manning-less Colts are 0-6, and the lethargic and punchless Jags weigh-in at 1-5, so this becomes a huge game in what is now a two-horse race for the AFC South. This game seems to be pretty even, but there is one caveat. Teams have had a lot of difficulty coming off of bye weeks and the new collective bargaining rules are perhaps the cause. This season, teams are issued a mandatory four days off and are prohibited from watching game film. Bye teams this year have really struggled on their return, providing an edge for Houston. The Texans have responded very well when coming into a game off a pair of losses where they are 31-16 ATS. I expect Houston to move the ball well as the Titans are better against the run than the pass, and have allowed 46.7% conversion rates to opponents on third down which should help sustain drives for Matt Schaub. Houston has responded after scoring 15 or less in their previous game by going 8-2 ATS in their next game. Take the Texans and the points. I also like the OVER in this game. Tennessee has had trouble scoring against the better defenses they have seen in the last three weeks, but they have scored a lot (30 points per game) in their first three vs. suspect defenses. So I think both teams move the chains and score a lot. Houston is 7-1 to the OVER in their last eight as a dog. The Titans are playing high off a bye with a 13-5-1 OVER mark in their last 19, and this series has gone OVER in five straight. Finally, under Gary Kubiak, the Texans are 21-10 OVER in division games and 16-4 OVER following a double-digit loss. Play on  Houston and the OVER here.